Life expectancy for older people in Ireland has been increasing steadily since the 1980s. Despite this, Irish life expectancies for the over 65s lagged seriously behind the EU average as recently as the mid 1990s. But Irish death rates for the over 65s dropped dramatically between 2000 and 2005, moving Ireland closer to the European average. Whereas between 1996 and 1999 death rates (from all causes) in Ireland had fallen by just over 5%, between 2000 and 2004 the decrease was over 26%. What lies behind this rare and welcome good news story? An article by researchers from the ESRI and the Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics at Trinity College Dublin sets out the background to this sharp fall in death rates, and examines how the greater use of effective drug therapies contributed to this result.

 

The fall in mortality was particularly pronounced for diseases of the circulatory system such as heart disease and strokes where there was a 30% reduction between 2000 and 2005. This was an extraordinary development that, if sustained, had huge implications for the provision of services to older Irish people such as pensions and health care. Looking around for clues some noticed that the fall in the rate of deaths was particularly pronounced in the winter months (See Figure 1). Ireland sees 21% more deaths in the depths of winter than in high summer (almost twice the Danish proportion), largely from the interaction of low temperature with existing cardiovascular and respiratory conditions so analysts initially looked to global warming for an explanation. Analysis of weather trends showed no warming during recent winters so what could explain the drop in death rates?