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Northern Ireland’s population is projected to age faster than the rest of the UK: NISRA

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Date published: 
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
News source: 
NISRA
Region: 
Northern Ireland
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In 2009 there were 14,400 deaths registered in Northern Ireland, a decrease of 3 per cent from 2008. Last year also saw the lowest death rate in the history of Northern Ireland. 

These are some of the findings in the Annual Report of the Registrar General published by the Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) on 30th November, 2010.  The report provides information on births, deaths, marriages, civil partnerships, adoptions and divorces registered in 2009.
 
It finds that the Northern Ireland population is increasing in size and becoming older and this trend is set to continue. Over the next five decades Northern Ireland’s population is projected to age faster than all the other United Kingdom countries. Therefore this year the report contains an article entitled “Northern Ireland: An Ageing Population” written by NISRA.
Key Findings:
Population
 
·         The size of the Northern Ireland resident population rose in the year to 30 June 2009 by 13,900 people or 0.8 per cent to 1,788,900;
  
·         in the future the Northern Ireland population is projected to reach 2 million by the early 2030s;
 
·         population projections indicate a marked increase in the size of the population at older ages.  The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by around 13 per cent in the next five years and by around 43 per cent over the fifteen year period between 2008 and 2023;
Lowest death rate on record
 
·         The number of deaths registered in Northern Ireland last year was 14,413, a decrease of 494 deaths or 3 per cent on the 2008 figure of 14,907;
 
·         the overall crude death rate in Northern Ireland has fallen significantly over the last thirty years from 11.0 deaths per 1,000 population in 1979 to 8.1 deaths per 1,000 population in 2009; the lowest death rate on record;
 
·         the reduction in the death rate in recent years has occurred despite the population increasing in size and containing a higher proportion of older people. Indeed, if the age-specific death rates of 1979 still applied, the number of deaths registered in 2009 would have been just under 26,800; almost 12,400 higher than the actual number registered;
 
 
·         in 2009, 3,885 people died from cancer, a slight decrease on the 2008 figure of 3,971. Prior to 2007 the number of deaths due to cancer had remained broadly stable over the last decade at about 3,700 per year. Cancer deaths represent 27 per cent of all deaths registered in 2009 compared to 17 per cent of all deaths in 1979. In contrast, 2,305 people died from ischaemic heart disease in 2009, a decrease of 53 per cent from the 1979 figure of 4,923 deaths; and
 
·         in 2009, a total of 283 people died from alcohol related deaths, this is 63 per cent higher than the 174 deaths registered in 1999.  There were 84 drug related deaths in Northern Ireland in 2009, this is more than two-thirds higher than the 50 deaths registered in 1999.
“Northern Ireland: An Ageing Population”: Gillian McCrory, Naomi O’Neill, Jos IJpelaar and David Marshall, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
 
·         The Northern Ireland population is ageing as a result of long-term falls in fertility rates and long-term improvements in mortality rates. This will create changes in the make-up of the Northern Ireland population. Most notably it is projected that the ageing of the Northern Ireland population over the next five decades will be the fastest in the United Kingdom;
 
·         in the 1937 Census the older population (those aged 65 and over) was recorded at just under 116,000 (nine per cent of the population). This compares with 2009 with almost 255,000 older people (14 per cent of the population). Population ageing is likely to be faster over the next 30 years, with older people projected to reach half a million by 2041 (24 per cent of the population);
 
·         over the last century mortality rates have declined, people are therefore living longer and dying of different diseases today than in the past. The majority of those aged 65 and over were simply recorded as dying of old age in 1922, but by 2009, those aged 85 and over are more likely to die due to diseases of the circulatory system followed by diseases of the respiratory system; and
 
·         calculations for life expectancy and limiting long term illness-free life expectancy show that on average males can expect to live 76.6 years with 80 per cent or 61.5 years limiting long term illness-free, while females can expect to live for 81.3 years with 77 per cent or 62.3 of those years limiting long term illness-free. Based on current trends after the age of 65 the Northern Ireland population is expected to spend around half of their remaining years in poor health.
Source: NISRA

 

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