The Institute of Public Health (IPH) is predicting that chronic conditions such as hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes are to increase dramatically. It forecasts a 30% increase in the number of people living with these conditions in Northern Ireland by 2020 and a 40% increase in the Republic of Ireland as populations grow and age on the island. The IPH study Making Chronic Conditions Count describes the prevalence of these conditions in 2007 and estimated levels for 2015 and 2020 across the island of Ireland.

'Adding years of illness'

IPH Associate Director Prof Kevin Balanda said, “The serious rise in chronic disease levels will result in a huge increase in demand for our already strained health and social care services, and a very significant additional financial burden to our economy through lost productivity. Unless we can address this increase in people living with these conditions we could be adding years of illness and disability to our lives.”

Future prevalence and ageing society

The findings show that people from lower socio-economic groups and older age groups are carrying a disproportionate amount of the burden of chronic conditions in society. The report seeks to underline the need for policy makers and practitioners north and south to redouble their efforts in the areas of planning, service provision and especially prevention of chronic conditions. The findings on the future prevalence of chronic illnesses should be useful for anyone involved in planning and providing services in an ageing society and for those promoting healthier ageing in society. The full report is available at www.publichealth.ie

The key findings for Northern Ireland are:

•    High blood pressure: In 2007 nearly 396,000 people (28.7%) had high blood pressure.  By 2020 this is expected to rise to nearly 482,000 people – an additional 86,000 people (a 22% increase in less than 15 years).

•    Coronary Heart Disease (CHD): In 2007 over 75,000 people (5.4%) had ever had CHD. By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 97,000 people - an additional 22,000 people (an increase of 30% in less than 15 years).

•    Stroke: In 2007 almost 33,000 people (2.4%) had ever had a stroke. By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 42,000 people - an additional 10,000 adults (an increase of 29% in less than 15 years).

•    Diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2 combined): In 2007 over 67,000 people (5.3%) had diabetes. By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 94,000 people - an additional 27,000 people (a 40% increase in less than 15 years).

The key findings for the Republic of Ireland are:

•    High blood pressure: In 2007 nearly 852,000 adults (25.1%) had high blood pressure. By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 1,192,000 people - an additional 341,000 adults (a 40% increase in less than 15 years).

•    Coronary Heart Disease (CHD): In 2007 nearly 131,000 adults (3.8%) had ever had a Coronary Heart Disease (CHD, angina and heart attack). By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 195,000 people - an additional 65,000 people (a 50% increase in less than 15 years).

•    Stroke: In 2007 almost 59,000 adults (1.7%) have ever had a stroke. By 2020 this is expected to rise to almost 87,000 people – an additional 28,000 adults (an increase of 48% in less than 15 years).

•    Diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2 combined): In 2007 nearly 144,000 adults (4.5%) have diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2 combined). By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 233,000 an additional 89,000 adults – (a 62% increase in less than 15 years).